Polish logistics real estate is in the late innings of a mispricing. Not a bubble, not a crisis — a structural gap between what the asset class is worth at the cost of capital that international institutional money actually requires, and what it is currently changing hands at. The window for entering at this gap is open. It will not stay open through 2027.
Where pricing actually sits.
The numbers most international investors are working from are six to nine months out of date. Prime Class A logistics in core Polish hubs — Warsaw region, Łódź central corridor, Upper Silesia — was trading at net initial yields between 6.50% and 6.75% through the second half of 2024, having expanded from a cyclical low of approximately 4.00–4.25% in late 2021. By the close of 2025 we were seeing selective pricing back through 5.75–6.25% on the strongest single-tenant covenants with long-WAULT income.
The relevant comparison is not historical — it is geographic. Prime German logistics finished 2025 in the 4.50–4.75% range; the Netherlands closer to 4.75%; Czech Republic, the only direct CEE peer with similar institutional depth, around 5.50%. The spread between Polish prime and German prime is now between 100 and 175 basis points, a level last seen in 2017 — before Poland was reclassified by most large European mandates as a developed-market satellite rather than an emerging-market diversifier.
A 125–175 basis point spread for a market with deeper occupier demand, longer average lease terms, lower vacancy, and stronger nearshoring tailwinds than Germany is not a permanent state. It is a repricing in slow motion.
The three things that opened the window.
Three structural shifts, each visible in 2024 reporting from Cushman, Colliers, JLL, and AXI Immo, set the current entry point.
First: speculative supply collapsed. Polish logistics under construction peaked at roughly 3.5 million sqm in mid-2022. By the end of 2024 that number had fallen to under 1.5 million sqm — a 55% reduction — with the speculative share of pipeline dropping to its lowest ratio in seven years. New deliveries through 2026 will lag stabilised demand. This is not a forecast; it is what the construction starts of 2024 mechanically produce.
Second: occupier demand normalised at a structurally higher level. Annual take-up averaged 4.5–5.5 million sqm across 2023 and 2024 — below the 2021 peak but materially above the 2017–2019 base. Net absorption stayed positive every quarter. Vacancy rose from approximately 4% in mid-2022 to a peak above 8% in mid-2024, then began contracting. Polish logistics is not under-leased; it absorbed a supply shock and moved on.
Third: capital allocation is rotating. German Spezialfonds and pan-European core funds spent 2023–2024 reducing weighting in Germany itself — partly forced by valuation marks, partly strategic. The replacement allocation is going to one of two places: Southern Europe at sub-5% prime, or Poland at 6%-handle prime. The latter is where the better-informed mandates have been moving since Q2 2024. The execution path runs through firms with off-market access; that is precisely the bottleneck.
"The Polish logistics asset class is one of the few in continental Europe where you can still buy institutional-grade product at a yield that pays for itself before any compression assumption."
What international capital consistently misses.
The mistake we see most often in mandates we decline is treating Poland as a single market priced at one cap rate. It is not. The pricing dispersion within Polish logistics today is wider than the pricing dispersion between Polish and Czech logistics overall.
A Class A asset in the Warsaw region with a 5+ year WAULT to an investment-grade tenant trades 75–125 basis points inside a comparable asset in a tier-two regional hub — even when the regional asset has the same building specification, identical tenant covenant strength, and longer remaining lease term. Some of that spread is rational. Most of it is informational.
The second consistent miss is land-bank value embedded in vendor portfolios. Several Polish development sponsors are sitting on permitted, serviced industrial land acquired in 2018–2020 at cost bases that are now functionally written off the books. International capital evaluating a portfolio acquisition tends to focus on the standing-asset cap rate and discount the land. That is wrong twice over: the land is real, and current replacement cost is materially higher than book.
The third is lease covenant quality in regional hubs. Tier-two Polish logistics is not anchored by tier-two tenants. Investment-grade automotive, FMCG, and 3PL operators occupy regional Class A space at scale. A buyer pricing tier-two hubs on perceived covenant risk without underwriting the actual schedule of tenants is leaving 50–75 basis points on the table.
What closes the window.
Three indicators will signal that the entry point has closed. We watch them weekly.
Prime through 5.50%.
Sustained printed prime yields on core covenants below 5.50% — the level at which Polish logistics ceases to clear the cost of capital of the marginal international buyer.
Pipeline back above 1.5M sqm.
A return of speculative starts to the long-run average — the structural reason the current vintage of acquisitions will look well-priced in retrospect disappears.
Mid-cap consolidation.
Two or more sub-€500M Polish logistics platforms acquired by pan-European or US-anchored institutional aggregators within a six-month window — the public signal that mainstream capital has arrived.
None of these are imminent. All three are plausible inside 18–24 months. The base case for a fund evaluating Polish logistics today is that the pricing window closes by some combination of the above before Q4 2027 — and that the most attractive vintages of acquisitions will have completed by mid-2026.
"What gets done in 2026 will, in retrospect, look like a different asset class than what gets done in 2028. The structural reason is supply. The cyclical reason is capital."
What this brief is not.
This is not investment advice. It is not a forecast. It is not, despite the appearance of confidence, a guarantee about anything that will happen in 2026 or 2027.
It is a view from a desk that watches Polish logistics every week. It is the view we would give a Head of Acquisitions in Frankfurt, Amsterdam, or Stockholm if they called us at six on a Thursday evening — direct, unhedged, with the relevant context for their next decision and nothing else.
Where we have positions, we engage. Where we do not, we say so.
Yield, take-up, vacancy, and pipeline data points reference publicly published quarterly reporting from Cushman & Wakefield, Colliers, JLL, AXI Immo, and Newmark covering 2023–2025. Forward-looking commentary in this brief is reasoned analysis, not forecast. Indicative ranges should not be relied on for transaction underwriting; live mandate pricing is provided to qualified counterparties under NDA.
FJORE represents one party per transaction. We do not run dual-agency mandates and do not maintain a research-for-sale business. Briefs are written when there is something to say; we do not publish on a content calendar.
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